trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +6.8% | -3.4% | 75% | 75% | +3.7% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +31.4% | +18.9% | 86% | 86% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 38 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 63% | 53% | -10.2% |
| all | 154 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 66% | 53% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.8% | 53% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -19.3% | 40% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -27.1% | 32% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -34.3% | 25% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 61¢ | 60¢ | $122 | $121 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 88¢ | 86¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $48 | $48 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $44 | $43 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 90¢ | 86¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $1,274 | +$726 | +57% |
| Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $491 | −$480 | -98% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jun 15 | $21 | +$9 | +40% |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $30 | +$9 | +31% |
| Spread: Knicks (-3.5) | Jun 12 | $50 | +$40 | +79% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 | Jun 06 | $14 | +$6 | +44% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 25 | $5 | +$3 | +70% |
| Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 18 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 18 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | May 14 | $5 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 24 | $291 | −$291 | -100% |
| Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 15 | $12,496 | −$13 | -0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 15 | $12,508 | −$13 | -0% |
| Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 15 | $12,521 | −$13 | -0% |
| Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 | Apr 15 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Spread: Suns (-4.5) | Apr 15 | $5 | +$4 | +83% |
| Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5 | Apr 15 | $5 | +$5 | +85% |
| Spread: Suns (-2.5) | Apr 14 | $50 | +$50 | +100% |
| Heat vs. Raptors | Apr 10 | $50 | +$30 | +60% |
| Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5 | Apr 09 | $50 | −$49 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Nuggets | Apr 04 | $28 | −$28 | -99% |
| Pacers vs. Bulls | Apr 01 | $256 | −$253 | -99% |
| Raptors vs. Pistons | Apr 01 | $12 | +$8 | +70% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers | Mar 31 | $69 | −$68 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Rockets | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Clippers vs. Bucks | Mar 31 | $352 | +$48 | +14% |
| Hawks vs. Celtics | Mar 29 | $13 | +$7 | +52% |
| Clippers vs. Pacers | Mar 29 | $15 | +$5 | +30% |
| Heat vs. Cavaliers | Mar 29 | $33 | +$17 | +52% |
| Raptors vs. Clippers | Mar 27 | $12 | +$8 | +61% |
| Lakers vs. Pacers | Mar 27 | $88 | +$17 | +19% |
| Thunder vs. Celtics | Mar 25 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Knicks | Mar 25 | $4 | +$1 | +30% |
| Kings vs. Hornets | Mar 25 | $9 | +$1 | +10% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Mar 23 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Celtics | Mar 22 | $117 | −$117 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Hawks | Mar 22 | $200 | +$50 | +25% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 21 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Spread: Warriors (-8.5) | Mar 18 | $3 | +$2 | +82% |
| Magic vs. Hawks | Mar 18 | $6 | +$4 | +79% |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Mar 18 | $15 | +$5 | +35% |
| Will MrBeast get married by December 31? | Mar 16 | $21 | +$5 | +23% |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $5 | +$1 | +17% |
| Jazz vs. Kings | Mar 16 | $55 | +$45 | +82% |
| Pacers vs. Bucks | Mar 16 | $80 | +$30 | +37% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | Mar 15 | $26 | +$1 | +4% |
| Spread: Heat (-3.5) | Mar 15 | $30 | +$29 | +96% |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Mar 14 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Warriors | Mar 14 | $60 | +$30 | +49% |