Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdec…a3a7 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+0%) realized +$208 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%102W / 52L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$264
14 days+$310
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$783
politics 27% −$16
sports 13% +$68
economics 10% −$69
crypto 2% −$453
world 0% −$122
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.8% -3.4% 75% 75% +3.7%
≤30d 7 +31.4% +18.9% 86% 86% +5.6%
≤90d 38 -1.6% -11.0% 63% 53% -10.2%
all 154 -1.4% -10.8% 66% 53% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 53% -9.2%
10% -19.3% 40% -17.9%
15% -27.1% 32% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 25% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$61 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$208
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses102 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions10
Markets (closed)154 / 164
History coverage265d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 90¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,274 +$726 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $491 −$480 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $21 +$9 +40%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 12 $50 +$40 +79%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 Jun 06 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $5 +$3 +70%
Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $5 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $291 −$291 -100%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $12,496 −$13 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $12,508 −$13 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $12,521 −$13 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 Apr 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Suns (-4.5) Apr 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5 Apr 15 $5 +$5 +85%
Spread: Suns (-2.5) Apr 14 $50 +$50 +100%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 10 $50 +$30 +60%
Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5 Apr 09 $50 −$49 -99%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $28 −$28 -99%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 01 $256 −$253 -99%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $12 +$8 +70%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Mar 31 $69 −$68 -99%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 31 $352 +$48 +14%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 29 $13 +$7 +52%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 29 $15 +$5 +30%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 29 $33 +$17 +52%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $12 +$8 +61%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $88 +$17 +19%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $4 +$1 +30%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 25 $9 +$1 +10%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 22 $117 −$117 -100%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 22 $200 +$50 +25%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 21 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Warriors (-8.5) Mar 18 $3 +$2 +82%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 18 $6 +$4 +79%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Mar 18 $15 +$5 +35%
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? Mar 16 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $55 +$45 +82%
Pacers vs. Bucks Mar 16 $80 +$30 +37%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? Mar 15 $26 +$1 +4%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Mar 15 $30 +$29 +96%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 14 $60 +$30 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $123 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $31 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $50 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.37 · official $325.28 (match) · 565 history records