Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdeb…008f sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$132 (-14%) realized −$131 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$172
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$134
other 23% −$1
tech 4% $0
world 4% −$3
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 50% -13.3%
≤90d 16 -12.6% -20.9% 69% 31% -27.0%
all 21 -14.3% -22.4% 71% 24% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 24% -25.9%
10% -29.9% 14% -33.0%
15% -36.6% 14% -39.5%
20% -42.9% 14% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$56 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage170d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $207 $206 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $100 +$134 +134%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $64 +$38 +60%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $49 −$49 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $139 −$138 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 15 $69 −$68 -99%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? May 15 $13 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 15 $16 +$1 +7%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 15 $66 +$12 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $55 −$54 -98%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 23 $16 $0 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Feb 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Feb 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 04 $21 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 10 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $209 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $100 9d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $64 14d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $49 23d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 73¢ $139 29d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $69 34d
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 48¢ $55 43d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $66 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 63¢ $26 54d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton BUY Joao Fonseca 65¢ $26 61d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $16 87d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 94d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $12 100d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $13 105d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $9 110d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $15 129d
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 130d
Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 143d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 143d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 99¢ $21 154d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $20 159d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.84 · official $205.84 (match) · 37 history records