Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfde8…6af5 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
other 21% −$4
politics 12% +$1
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 47 -2.6% -11.9% 38% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage274d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 20 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 22 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $2 $0 -7%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $38 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $12 9d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $38 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $42 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $36 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $6 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $42 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $42 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $16 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $5 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $10 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $6 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 179d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $4 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $2 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 61¢ $5 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.19 · official $37.19 (match) · 131 history records