Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfde6…7ed6 other 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (406 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,796 (-5%) realized −$3,311 · open −$3,485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%41W / 396L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$739per market
Trades / day406.1pace
Fees−$1,613est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$14,811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$788
sports 41% +$41,513
crypto 3% −$1,161
world 1% −$1,013
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (406 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 -69.6% -72.5% 8% 5% -37.0%
≤30d 437 -65.1% -68.4% 9% 6% -38.4%
≤90d 437 -65.1% -68.4% 9% 6% -38.4%
all 437 -65.1% -68.4% 9% 6% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover406.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.4% 6% -38.4%
10% -71.5% 5% -44.3%
15% ← realistic here -74.2% 4% -49.7%
20% -76.7% 4% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -41% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,493 vs −$456 · ×5.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$14,811
Realized−$3,311
Unrealized−$3,485
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses41 / 396
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1,613
Open positions60
Markets (closed)437 / 189
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$739
Trades / day406.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $1,749 $2,307 +$558 (+32%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2,400 $2,300 −$100 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 27¢ $1,211 $1,726 +$514 (+42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1,040 $1,012 −$28 (-3%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $900 −$100 (-10%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $609 $822 +$213 (+35%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $789 $799 +$10 (+1%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $448 $695 +$247 (+55%)
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 97¢ 98¢ $549 $552 +$3 (+1%)
Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $502 $501 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $506 $480 −$26 (-5%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 96¢ 98¢ $417 $428 +$11 (+3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1,456 $402 −$1,054 (-72%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $3,830 $380 −$3,449 (-90%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $381 $302 −$80 (-21%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $238 $174 −$64 (-27%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $158 $163 +$5 (+3%)
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 98¢ $151 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $79 $127 +$48 (+62%)
Will voter turnout be less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No 72¢ 90¢ $69 $87 +$17 (+25%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 58¢ 76¢ $40 $52 +$13 (+32%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance Cabo Verde 7¢ 8¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 94¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $53 $39 −$15 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 395 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 6 - 2 Burnley FC? Jun 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 30 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 30 $1,115 −$780 -70%
Will Singapore vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 30 $140 −$140 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: Both Teams to Score Jun 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? Jun 30 $47 −$47 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Haiti? Jun 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 30 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 30 $66 −$66 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 30 $100 −$100 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 30 $90 −$90 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 30 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 30 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 30 $360 −$360 -100%
Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 3 - 0 Atalanta BC? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Jun 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 0 - 0 FC Bayern München? Jun 30 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 30 $994 −$994 -100%
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 1 Bahrain? Jun 30 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 30 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? Jun 30 $67 −$67 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 30 $394 −$394 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Jun 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Jun 30 $552 −$1,076 -195%
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Jun 30 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 Jun 30 $134 −$134 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 0 Manchester City FC? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 30 $116 −$116 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 30 $3,987 −$4,876 -122%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 30 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Jun 30 $645 −$645 -100%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Jun 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $0 49m
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance BUY Cabo Verde 7¢ $39 52m
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 6¢ $3,600 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance BUY Cabo Verde 7¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) BUY Morocco 0¢ $3 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance SELL Cabo Verde 9¢ $30 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance SELL Cabo Verde 9¢ $9 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance SELL Cabo Verde 9¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance SELL Cabo Verde 9¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance SELL Cabo Verde 9¢ $8 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance SELL Cabo Verde 9¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance SELL Cabo Verde 9¢ $8 2h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance SELL Cabo Verde 9¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,810.68 · official $14,810.50 (match) · 3500 history records