Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfde4…603e
crypto · 684 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$336 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$336 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses273 / 411
Open positions0
Markets (closed)684 / 684
History coverage106d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 684 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$49
14 days−$71
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$3 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +165%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$7 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$338
other 2% +$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -56.1% -60.3% 32% 21% -37.7%
≤30d 119 -22.7% -30.1% 34% 28% -35.9%
≤90d 464 -32.2% -38.6% 38% 28% -13.6%
all 684 -29.3% -36.0% 40% 28% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 28% -13.7%
10% -42.2% 19% -22.0%
15% -47.7% 12% -29.5%
20% -52.9% 8% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1646 history records