Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfde3…a348 crypto 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$262 (+4%) realized +$266 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 62L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$152
world 3% −$2
finance 0% −$3
other 0% −$4
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.5% -35.3% 57% 14% -36.1%
≤30d 7 -28.5% -35.3% 57% 14% -36.1%
≤90d 8 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 12% -35.5%
all 107 -12.4% -20.7% 42% 25% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 25% -7.7%
10% -28.3% 17% -16.5%
15% -35.2% 11% -24.6%
20% -41.6% 10% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$19 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$266
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage111d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 74¢ 59¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 13 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 23 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 23 $13 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 23 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 23 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 23 $21 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 23 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 23 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 23 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 23 $37 +$14 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 23 $87 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 23 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 23 $30 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 23 $200 −$103 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 23 $269 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 23 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 22 $72 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 22 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 22 $120 +$32 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 22 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 22 $219 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 22 $320 −$10 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 22 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 22 $100 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 21 $32 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 21 $130 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 20 $210 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 18 $237 +$188 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 18 $30 −$14 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 18 $110 +$13 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.68 · official $55.68 (match) · 402 history records