Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfde2…312b other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$5
other 40% $0
politics 8% +$1
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -10.4%
all 37 +0.2% -9.3% 49% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage474d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $139 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $19 −$1 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $39 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $66 −$4 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $46 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $44 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $19 $0 -2%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 05 $19 $0 -0%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Apr 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 04 $4 $0 +8%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 03 $1 $0 +3%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $17 $0 -2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $38 3h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 20d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $38 21d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $39 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $34 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $5 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 15¢ $21 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 18¢ $26 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $21 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $21 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records