Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfddd…cab9
crypto · 784 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$499 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$492 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$492
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses544 / 239
Open positions1
Markets (closed)783 / 784
History coverage32d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day67.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 783 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$169
14 days−$430
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 72¢ 88¢ $36 $44 +$8 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 26¢ 12¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? No 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? No 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22? No 92¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18? No 71¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26? No 74¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? No 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 26? No 71¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21? No 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17? No 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $64 +$21 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$6 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$489
weather 18% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $38 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $14 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $36 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $42 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 -19.2% -26.9% 54% 32% -12.2%
≤30d 759 -8.2% -16.9% 70% 43% -11.1%
≤90d 783 -8.5% -17.2% 69% 43% -11.2%
all 783 -8.5% -17.2% 69% 43% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover67.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 43% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 19% -19.7%
15% -32.4% 8% -27.5%
20% -39.0% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.99 · official $49.99 (match) · 2703 history records