Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FD 0xfdda…938a sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+19%) realized +$58 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +104% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$98
other 3% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+84.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +104.3% +84.8% 80% 80% +74.3%
≤30d 5 +104.3% +84.8% 80% 80% +74.3%
≤90d 5 +104.3% +84.8% 80% 80% +74.3%
all 5 +104.3% +84.8% 80% 80% +74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +84.8% 80% +74.3%
10% +67.1% 80% +57.6%
15% +51.0% 80% +42.4%
20% +36.2% 80% +28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +104% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$2 · ×19.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×79.49 per $1 lost it wins $79.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 61¢ 60¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance Ecuador 38¢ 38¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 57¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $31 +$54 +178%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $41 +$35 +86%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$22 +213%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $25 +$13 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $85 1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance BUY Ecuador 38¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 43¢ $5 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 61¢ $25 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 34¢ $25 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 100¢ $75 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $24 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 61¢ $56 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY 52¢ $25 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 55¢ $15 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 99¢ $38 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 65¢ $25 28h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 30h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $25 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.90 · official $157.54 · 17 history records