Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfdd4…cd4a finance 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,846 (+5%) realized +$1,829 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate59%87W / 61L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$213
14 days+$350
30 days+$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 75% +$1,744
other 16% +$519
world 7% −$43
sports 2% +$33
crypto 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -36.5% -42.5% 38% 15% -3.7%
≤30d 38 -4.2% -13.3% 61% 37% -1.2%
≤90d 122 -9.1% -17.7% 59% 35% -4.0%
all 148 -7.2% -16.0% 59% 34% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 34% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 17% -13.3%
15% -31.4% 8% -21.7%
20% -38.1% 6% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$25 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$1,829
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses87 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions37
Markets (closed)148 / 175
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$222
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 85¢ 88¢ $85 $88 +$3 (+4%)
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 62¢ 68¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 47¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+135%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+46%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+49%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 21¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+75%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 62¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 21¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 58¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 17¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 25¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 17 $34 +$27 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 17 $46 +$2 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $740 +$121 +16%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 −$16 -90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 16 $1,055 −$24 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $723 +$57 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 14 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 12 $518 +$54 +10%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 09 $17 −$7 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 08 $269 +$67 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 08 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 08 $606 +$67 +11%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 07 $3 $0 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 05 $34 +$6 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $27 +$7 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $327 +$2 +0%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? May 31 $315 +$11 +3%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 30 $97 −$64 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $585 −$9 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 27 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 27 $590 +$6 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 25 $154 +$51 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $32 +$7 +22%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $590 −$21 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 24 $1,254 +$214 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $1,125 +$55 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 23 $153 +$51 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 23 $134 +$17 +13%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? May 22 $22 +$70 +312%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $406 +$87 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 20 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $18 −$15 -85%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 +$3 +121%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $19 −$12 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 15 $207 +$42 +20%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $8 −$7 -95%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $9 −$8 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $64 −$62 -96%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 13 $84 −$68 -81%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 13 $123 +$11 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $48 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 93¢ $84 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 93¢ $84 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 95¢ $76 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 86¢ $61 13h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $10 18h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $2 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 65¢ $26 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 71¢ $28 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 20h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 52¢ $66 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $65 33h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 33h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $96 36h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 51¢ $45 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.59 · official $361.25 · 3500 history records