Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FD 0xfdd2…ff00 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,078 (-1%) realized −$1,082 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$862per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$807now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$18
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,189
politics 28% −$43
sports 9% +$171
world 4% −$27
economics 3% −$2
culture 2% −$2
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 52 -2.0% -11.4% 6% 0% -11.0%
all 141 +0.2% -9.4% 21% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 11% -10.3%
10% -18.0% 11% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 11% -26.8%
20% -33.2% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,156) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$807
Realized−$1,082
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage166d
Avg bet$862
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $803 $807 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $299 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 18 $316 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,293 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,695 −$5 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $1,317 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,573 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,540 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,360 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $485 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,676 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 19 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $710 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $794 +$2 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $2,265 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $3,639 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,332 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,152 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,899 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,645 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3,002 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,442 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,905 −$2 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $1,156 −$1,156 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $359 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $257 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $359 2h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $257 4h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $299 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $315 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $316 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $219 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $220 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $617 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $618 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $803 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,086 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $979 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $980 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,405 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,407 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $959 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $961 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,394 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,396 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,317 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,317 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $901 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $903 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,196 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,197 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,026 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $806.74 · official $806.74 (match) · 442 history records