Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfdcd…2982 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$9
other 26% −$1
politics 13% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 29% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 12 +0.9% -8.8% 33% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 15 +1.3% -8.3% 33% 7% -8.1%
all 46 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -8.8%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage300d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 21 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $26 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $107 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $53 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $42 +$5 +11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $2 $0 +13%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $41 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $22 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $26 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $53 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $53 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $52 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $52 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $53 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.60 · official $50.60 (match) · 133 history records