Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfdcc…7d04 crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%80W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 4% -9.0%
≤30d 84 -1.7% -11.0% 95% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 84 -1.7% -11.0% 95% 4% -9.0%
all 84 -1.7% -11.0% 95% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 4% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 1% -17.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses80 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage8d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 99¢ 92¢ $140 $130 −$10 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $381 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $351 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $351 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $351 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $350 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $381 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $298 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $141 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $121 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $161 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $342 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $261 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $221 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $333 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $266 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $331 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.80 · official $130.80 (match) · 494 history records