Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdc9…3e64 weather 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%157W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$4
world 5% +$1
other 2% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 95 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 158 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses157 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage184d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 7? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 3 Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 25? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 24? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 23? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 22? May 23 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 17? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump Leave China after May 18? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 29? Apr 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on April 28? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 27 Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 27? Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26? Apr 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $24 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 23? Apr 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 23? Apr 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on Apri Apr 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on April 22? Apr 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 22? Apr 22 $24 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $23 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $25 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $25 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $25 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 16d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $25 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 22d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.26 · official $25.26 (match) · 318 history records