Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdc7…db90 other 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%27W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$28
politics 20% −$9
sports 20% −$25
crypto 8% +$2
economics 7% −$2
culture 6% +$3
finance 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 94 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 171 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses27 / 144
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage162d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 08 $42 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $93 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $64 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 05 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $462 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $171 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $156 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $224 +$2 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $411 $0 +0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $247 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $696 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $52 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 20 $64 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $231 −$1 -1%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 2h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $35 10h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $14 10h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $46 7d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $46 7d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 21d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 21d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $60 29d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 29d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $67 42d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $55 42d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $13 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $42 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $42 43d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 43d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 43d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $59 43d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $59 43d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 43d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $56 43d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $55 43d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $10 44d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $46 44d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $37 44d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $37 44d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 44d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 44d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $51 44d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $51 44d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 754 history records