Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FD 0xfdc5…b8f3 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,092 (+53%) realized +$1,092 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,072
other 18% +$44
crypto 1% +$8
culture 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 100% +18.8%
≤30d 1 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 100% +18.8%
≤90d 1 +31.3% +18.8% 100% 100% +18.8%
all 10 +2.8% -7.0% 70% 60% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 60% +40.1%
10% -15.9% 50% +26.7%
15% -24.0% 40% +14.4%
20% -31.4% 30% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$22 · ×7.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.92 per $1 lost it wins $17.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1,092
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage242d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +31%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $1,342 +$1,034 +77%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 10 $295 +$65 +22%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik Nov 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Nov 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Nov 04 $218 +$20 +9%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Zverev Oct 31 $20 +$9 +47%
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Alex de Minaur Oct 31 $20 +$14 +70%
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Andrey Rublev Oct 30 $20 +$14 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic SELL Alcaraz 100¢ $2,377 147d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic BUY Alcaraz 50¢ $842 147d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic BUY Alcaraz 72¢ $500 147d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 72¢ $185 208d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 71¢ $103 208d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 215d
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 215d
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 215d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 215d
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 215d
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner BUY Sinner 92¢ $218 238d
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Andrey Rublev SELL Shelton 100¢ $34 241d
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 68¢ $20 241d
Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik BUY Fritz 57¢ $20 241d
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Alex de Minaur BUY Minaur 59¢ $20 241d
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Andrey Rublev BUY Shelton 58¢ $20 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.20 · official $43.20 (match) · 24 history records