Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfdc3…e213 crypto 374 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,676 (-57%) realized −$4,677 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate49%257W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +159.8% +135.1% 32% 26% -26.3%
≤30d 210 +147.6% +124.0% 33% 26% -21.5%
≤90d 529 +62.0% +46.6% 49% 19% -15.0%
all 529 +62.0% +46.6% 49% 19% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.6% 19% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here +32.6% 14% -23.2%
15% +19.8% 13% -30.6%
20% +8.0% 12% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +116% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$4,677
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses257 / 272
Open positions1
Markets (closed)529 / 374
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 48¢ 36¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 57¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 207 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$56 +4723%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$7 -224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$20 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$13 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$29 +2256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$13 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$15 +453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$8 -150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$49 -313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$29 +1146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$5 +1280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$18 +20989%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$23 +2097%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$32 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$20 -301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$33 +2723%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.55 · official $13.55 (match) · 3500 history records