Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfdc1…e624 other 650 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$39 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%598W / 40L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$12
14 days−$91
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$103
crypto 23% +$63
world 3% +$48
sports 2% +$17
weather 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.8% -12.9% 90% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 38 -6.5% -15.4% 76% 3% -12.6%
≤90d 156 -1.4% -10.8% 88% 1% -10.1%
all 638 +0.6% -8.9% 94% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$796
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses598 / 40
Open positions12
Markets (closed)638 / 650
History coverage179d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $140 $130 −$10 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? Yes 82¢ 95¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 89¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 99¢ 96¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $40 −$20 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $155 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $55 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $140 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 −$2 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $29 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 07 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $140 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 10 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 10 $296 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 01 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? May 01 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 01 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 28¢ $4 8d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 8d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 8d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 8d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 9d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 9d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $68 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $29 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $47 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $49 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $19 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $795.99 · official $795.99 (match) · 1534 history records