Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdc0…4b85 sports 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (260 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$284,844 (+71%) realized +$285,083 · open −$239
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%106W / 96L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,949per market
Trades / day259.5pace
Fees−$5,584est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (260 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 41% -9.2%
≤30d 202 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 36% -9.1%
≤90d 202 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 36% -9.1%
all 202 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 36% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover259.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 36% -9.1%
10% -24.6% 27% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 20% -25.8%
20% -38.6% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,777) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$558 vs −$602 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5,297
Realized+$285,083
Unrealized−$239
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses106 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$5,584
Open positions4
Markets (closed)202 / 206
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$1,949
Trades / day259.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 62¢ 100¢ $1,876 $3,030 +$1,154 (+62%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 58¢ 33¢ $2,477 $1,419 −$1,058 (-43%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 67¢ 56¢ $1,005 $847 −$158 (-16%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 43¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $893 +$178 +20%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $232 −$81 -35%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $360 +$40 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,805 −$201 -11%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $372 +$28 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $530 −$8 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,410 +$90 +6%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $573 +$140 +24%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $390 +$10 +2%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 16 $372 +$28 +8%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $360 +$40 +11%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $360 +$40 +11%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $364 +$36 +10%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 16 $372 +$28 +8%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $360 +$40 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $422 −$22 -5%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $607 +$106 +18%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $336 +$64 +19%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $122 +$293 +241%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $364 +$36 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $344 +$56 +16%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $305 −$299 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $352 +$448 +127%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $364 +$36 +10%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $389 +$11 +3%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $571 +$142 +25%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $369 −$365 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,395 +$105 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $540 +$960 +178%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $690 +$194 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,553 +$1,349 +87%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $788 −$79 -10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,466 −$700 -20%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $579 −$68 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $294 +$163 +55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $555 +$945 +170%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $573 −$48 -8%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $73 +$46 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,848 −$1,454 -25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,091 +$1,528 +73%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6,690 −$966 -14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $191 −$187 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,410 +$90 +6%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $364 +$36 +10%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$53 +156%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $284 +$273 +96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,214 −$100 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,106 +$844 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,197 +$303 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $2 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $18 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $3 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $1 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $2 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $14 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $19 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $132 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $14 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $197 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $23 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $57 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $28 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $6 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $2 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $57 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $393 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $28 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $96 14m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $472 15m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $16 15m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 59¢ $191 16m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 58¢ $881 17m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 58¢ $264 17m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $70 17m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $260 17m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $260 17m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 91¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 91¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 91¢ $298 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,296.71 · official $4,755.31 · 3500 history records