Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfdc0…e187 crypto 601 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$229 (+4%) realized +$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%427W / 173L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$24
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$135
sports 10% −$41
other 2% −$2
politics 0% +$373
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -1.7% -11.0% 79% 43% -13.0%
≤30d 252 -0.3% -9.8% 67% 49% -11.6%
≤90d 600 -0.6% -10.1% 71% 39% -6.6%
all 600 -0.6% -10.1% 71% 39% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 39% -6.6%
10% -18.7% 30% -15.5%
15% -26.6% 22% -23.7%
20% -33.8% 16% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 52% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses427 / 173
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)600 / 601
History coverage77d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +38%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +70%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +52%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$2 -28%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -55%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 1228 history records