Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfdbf…e028
other · 45 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$29 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)34 / 45
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 11 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$32
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$24 +2305%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +8%
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF Jun 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $14 $0 +1%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Will San Marino vs. Bangladesh end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +194%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 $0 +27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5 $0 -9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3 $0 -0%
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $6 +$1 +9%
Spread: Slovakia (-2.5) Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$1
sports 20% +$25
world 9% +$1
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 13h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $25 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 14h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 15h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 17h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 63¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +120.8% +99.8% 84% 63% +29.6%
≤30d 34 +58.8% +43.7% 68% 47% +6.2%
≤90d 34 +58.8% +43.7% 68% 47% +6.2%
all 34 +58.8% +43.7% 68% 47% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.7% 47% +6.2%
10% +29.9% 32% -4.0%
15% +17.4% 24% -13.3%
20% +5.9% 15% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.55 · official $33.55 (match) · 122 history records