Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdbf…c88e crypto 918 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 158d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,674 (-34%) realized −$9,674 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%475W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 159d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,629
sports 15% −$39
world 0% −$94
other 0% +$3
politics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 52% -19.8%
≤30d 40 +1.2% -8.5% 55% 52% -19.8%
≤90d 129 -9.5% -18.1% 44% 43% -22.6%
all 917 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 47% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -18.8%
10% -23.6% 39% -26.5%
15% -30.9% 32% -33.6%
20% -37.7% 25% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses475 / 442
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)917 / 918
History coverage159d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 917 Trades
no open positions (299 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -96%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $55 −$18 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $18 +$16 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$29 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$38 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $146 −$88 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $82 +$70 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$41 +99%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $81 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $39 −$37 -95%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $50 +$135 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$24 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$11 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $71 +$7 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $106 −$105 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $43 +$32 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $66 +$15 +23%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $37 +$38 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $66 +$34 +52%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$36 +115%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$40 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 12 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 12 $29 +$11 +39%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 12 $40 −$40 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $75 +$64 +85%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 12 $39 +$86 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $20 47m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 15¢ $18 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $34 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records