Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfdbc…4f0a
crypto · 362 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,846 -78%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,846 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$4,846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses135 / 407
Open positions0
Markets (closed)542 / 362
History coverage20d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day115.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 542 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,147
7 days−$4,017
14 days−$4,282
30 days−$4,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 32¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+212%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 24¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+317%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$8 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 +$1 +634%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$54 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$72 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$44 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$11 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$32 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$19 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$55 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$14 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$86 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$38 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$49 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$69 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$7 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$58 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$31 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$34 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$12 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$16 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$3 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$24 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$92 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$688
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -45.1% -50.3% 19% 18% -32.1%
≤30d 542 -38.9% -44.7% 25% 24% -34.4%
≤90d 542 -38.9% -44.7% 25% 24% -34.4%
all 542 -38.9% -44.7% 25% 24% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover115.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.7% 24% -34.4%
10% ← realistic here -50.0% 23% -40.7%
15% -54.8% 22% -46.4%
20% -59.3% 20% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.60 · official $6.00 · 3500 history records