Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdbb…09f5 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$46 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days+$109
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$218
other 23% −$254
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 45% +3.3%
≤30d 38 -11.5% -20.0% 39% 37% -6.0%
≤90d 38 -11.5% -20.0% 39% 37% -6.0%
all 38 -11.5% -20.0% 39% 37% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 37% -6.0%
10% -27.6% 37% -15.0%
15% -34.6% 37% -23.2%
20% -41.0% 34% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$34 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage10d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 30¢ $75 $45 −$30 (-40%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 58¢ 72¢ $35 $44 +$9 (+25%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 31¢ 7¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $93 +$60 +65%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $117 +$86 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $76 −$72 -95%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $78 −$50 -64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 +$84 +165%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$43 -85%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $66 +$77 +117%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $137 +$88 +64%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $67 +$60 +90%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $37 +$31 +82%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $55 +$47 +86%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$94 +92%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 +$13 +262%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $76 −$28 -37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$49 +107%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$8 -8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 +$25 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$22 +216%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $35 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $76 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $117 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $93 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 9h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 2¢ $3 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $76 22h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $29 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 23h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $78 24h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $41 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 34h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $8 45h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 46h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $35 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $46 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $225 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $81 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $56 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $67 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $37 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $38 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.81 · official $91.81 (match) · 75 history records