Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdba…36c4 crypto 326 markets active 0h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,849 (+2%) realized +$4,255 · open +$594
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate85%255W / 45L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$18,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$29
14 days+$238
30 days+$1,366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,554
crypto 38% +$3,816
politics 4% +$159
weather 3% −$627
sports 1% +$25
tech 1% +$6
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.7% -20.1% 75% 75% -17.6%
≤30d 127 +11.5% +0.9% 75% 57% -3.8%
≤90d 133 +11.0% +0.4% 76% 55% -4.7%
all 300 +4.8% -5.2% 85% 27% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 27% -7.6%
10% -14.2% 17% -16.4%
15% -22.5% 13% -24.5%
20% -30.1% 9% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$666) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$112 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$18,133
Realized+$4,255
Unrealized+$594
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses255 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)300 / 326
History coverage581d
Avg bet$698
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $3,565 $3,498 −$67 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,829 $1,932 +$103 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? No 87¢ 92¢ $1,731 $1,826 +$96 (+6%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $1,394 $1,525 +$131 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $865 $993 +$128 (+15%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $770 $794 +$25 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $680 $703 +$23 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 81¢ $626 $652 +$26 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 85¢ 90¢ $593 $626 +$33 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $580 $596 +$16 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $584 $572 −$12 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) No 90¢ 90¢ $548 $547 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 76¢ $608 $532 −$76 (-13%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $487 $497 +$10 (+2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $475 $494 +$18 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $430 $428 −$2 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $390 $398 +$8 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? No 93¢ 95¢ $372 $380 +$8 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $282 $316 +$34 (+12%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No 95¢ 96¢ $294 $296 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 62¢ 99¢ $122 $196 +$74 (+61%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $171 $182 +$12 (+7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $91 $97 +$6 (+7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $8,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 21 $125 +$19 +15%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 19 $72 −$67 -94%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 15 $56 +$10 +17%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 15 $70 +$10 +15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 11 $284 +$33 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 11 $221 +$20 +9%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 10 $109 +$14 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $7,833 +$201 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 05 $3,235 +$131 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $136 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 31 $140 +$90 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 31 $73 +$48 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $72 +$39 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 31 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $110 +$95 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $72 +$57 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $72 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 31 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $29 −$22 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 31 $26 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $39 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 31 $93 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 31 $38 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 31 $39 +$21 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $28 +$18 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $33 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $27 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 31 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $12 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 31 $14 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 31 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 31 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 31 $48 +$27 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $80 +$20 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 89¢ $8 23m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 89¢ $36 34m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 89¢ $178 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? SELL No 96¢ $201 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 89¢ $33 6h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 89¢ $16 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 89¢ $89 8h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 90¢ $45 10h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $143 11h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 90¢ $270 18h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 91¢ $52 21h
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 202 SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 86¢ $45 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 87¢ $58 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 87¢ $92 6d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $66 6d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $80 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 87¢ $64 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 89¢ $124 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 89¢ $63 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 89¢ $123 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 90¢ $360 9d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 95¢ $475 9d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 93¢ $465 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $316 10d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $241 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $231 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $204 11d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $123 11d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,297 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,133.34 · official $18,133.83 (match) · 1610 history records