Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdb6…69d9 world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$2
other 6% −$1
politics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 19 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 19 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 0% -9.3%
all 41 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 2% -9.2%
10% -21.0% 2% -17.9%
15% -28.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage465d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $58 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $26 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $46 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $39 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $45 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $4 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $2 +$1 +50%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 21m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 18h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $47 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $21 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $21 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $42 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 14d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 122 history records