Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfdb5…84e0 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 33% +$2
culture 20% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 54% 15% -9.8%
≤90d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 54% 15% -9.8%
all 38 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 8% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 5% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage331d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $97 −$5 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 +$3 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $191 +$1 +1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $190 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 10 $2 $0 -3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 10 $5 +$2 +54%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on Aug Aug 10 $17 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $2 $0 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 29 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 6h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $36 13h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $36 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $29 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $27 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $30 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $17 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $13 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $25 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.19 · official $35.19 (match) · 123 history records