Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdb4…6e6a other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$22
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$17
other 27% −$20
sports 17% −$8
crypto 9% −$7
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% $0
world 3% −$4
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 66 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.6% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.9%
all 134 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage101d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 97¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $134 −$2 -2%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $125 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $76 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $128 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $53 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $43 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $95 −$2 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $58 $0 -1%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $58 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $65 −$1 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $188 −$1 -1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $24 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $45 $0 -1%
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $43 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $37 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $109 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $56 58m
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 7h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $64 8h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $65 12h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 97¢ $64 12h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $45 20h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $64 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $64 27h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $19 28h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $20 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 39h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $49 40h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 47h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $19 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $49 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $49 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $69 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $69 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $47 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $14 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.26 · official $56.26 (match) · 470 history records