Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdb2…2c8c crypto 1329 markets active 5d ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$180 (-2%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate79%1046W / 283L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day64.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days−$26
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 672 +2.5% -7.3% 68% 52% -9.1%
≤30d 867 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 45% -14.0%
≤90d 1329 +1.1% -8.6% 79% 31% -10.2%
all 1329 +1.1% -8.6% 79% 31% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 31% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 25% -18.8%
15% -25.3% 20% -26.7%
20% -32.6% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1046 / 283
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1329 / 1329
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1329 Trades
no open positions (145 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$6 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records