Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdb1…27cd politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% $0
world 25% −$1
other 19% $0
tech 10% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 4% +$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 36 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage299d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $26 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $68 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $39 $0 +1%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 27 $39 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 26 $2 $0 +5%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 24 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $28 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $26 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $26 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $34 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $35 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $16 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $16 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $32 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $10 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $22 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $35 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $35 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.85 · official $1.85 (match) · 141 history records