Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdaf…7d88 other 19 markets active 10d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-8%) realized −$31 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$109
crypto 6% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 100% +16.7%
≤30d 2 -35.5% -41.7% 50% 50% -50.4%
≤90d 2 -35.5% -41.7% 50% 50% -50.4%
all 2 -35.5% -41.7% 50% 50% -50.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.7% 50% -50.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.2% 50% -55.2%
15% -52.3% 0% -59.5%
20% -57.0% 0% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$45 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)2 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $171 $210 +$39 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $153 $127 −$26 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $63 $88 +$25 (+40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $72 $50 −$22 (-30%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $33 $39 +$6 (+18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $54 $38 −$16 (-30%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $18 −$18 (-50%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $3 −$15 (-83%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $27 $2 −$25 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $33 +$10 +29%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $47 −$45 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 10d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $65 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $56 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $65 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $175 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 10d
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 59¢ $33 10d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 77¢ $33 10d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 73¢ $33 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $74 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $56 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $157 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.25 · official $874.01 (match) · 32 history records