Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfdae…6ad2 sports 804 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,410 (-11%) realized −$2,373 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%468W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$426
7 days−$438
14 days−$1,196
30 days−$1,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,079
other 7% −$446
politics 0% +$8
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 54% -14.9%
≤30d 390 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 54% -20.8%
≤90d 794 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 56% -20.2%
all 794 -1.3% -10.7% 59% 56% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 56% -20.2%
10% -19.3% 53% -27.8%
15% -27.1% 46% -34.8%
20% -34.2% 32% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$2,373
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses468 / 326
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions10
Markets (closed)794 / 804
History coverage66d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 82¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 84¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 54¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 32¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 20¢ $40 $13 −$27 (-66%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 11¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-78%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 37¢ 10¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 319 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$22 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$33 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $111 +$24 +22%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$42 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$14 +27%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $111 +$27 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $110 +$5 +4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$127 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$11 +55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$28 +275%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$19 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $120 +$412 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $703 −$700 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $10 +$19 +188%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 55m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $40 56m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $20 56m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 56m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $40 57m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 57m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 57m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 57m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 58m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 58m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $20 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $40 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $30 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $111 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $10 7h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 7h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.93 · official $343.54 · 1480 history records