Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfdaa…3eda
other · 119 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$156 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$156 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$47
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses21 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage95d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$80
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $51 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $158 −$2 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $177 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $60 $0 -1%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $179 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $571 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $470 $0 +0%
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $166 −$1 -0%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $379 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $204 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $246 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $107 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $56 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $458 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $130 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $249 −$3 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? May 22 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 May 21 $389 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 21 $59 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 33% −$54
other 26% −$18
crypto 14% −$9
sports 10% −$65
finance 5% −$5
culture 5% −$2
world 4% +$2
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 1h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $51 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $51 18h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $55 19h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $55 23h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $14 23h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $14 29h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $53 30h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $54 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $57 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $63 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $63 2d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 90¢ $58 2d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $60 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $61 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 92¢ $60 3d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $60 3d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $16 3d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $44 3d
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.0% -10.5% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 58 -2.5% -11.8% 9% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 109 -2.3% -11.6% 17% 0% -10.5%
all 118 -2.1% -11.4% 18% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.67 · official $46.67 (match) · 447 history records