Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfda7…08ef
crypto · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$88
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses59 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)83 / 92
History coverage159d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 9 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Mount St. Marys Mountaineers 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 82¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-03-07? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-03-07? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 69¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Bucks Jazz 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Texas Longhorns 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Thunder Warriors 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
California Baptist Lancers vs. Southern Utah Thunderbirds Southern Utah Thunderbirds 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Pimblett 69¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-03-07? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Elon Phoenix vs. William & Mary Tribe Elon Phoenix 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on May 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 28? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 21? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 19? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 18 $21 +$22 +107%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on March 15? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 16? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on March 15? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 16? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 8? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 8? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 2-8? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Elon Phoenix vs. William & Mary Tribe Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Southern Utah Thunderbirds Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Mar 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 27? Mar 08 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$1
politics 32% −$14
crypto 25% +$22
economics 8% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$29
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 1h
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $15 3d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 60d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 71d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 71d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 71d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 6% +0.2%
≤90d 37 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 3% -4.7%
all 83 -13.3% -21.6% 71% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 5% -9.8%
10% -29.1% 2% -18.4%
15% -35.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -42.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.96 · official $87.33 (match) · 236 history records