Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfda7…a4dc crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,731 (-41%) realized −$3,731 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%45W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$220
14 days+$106
30 days−$1,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$757
sports 32% −$2,199
other 23% −$718
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +14.6% +3.7% 62% 38% -0.4%
≤30d 59 +0.0% -9.5% 69% 32% -32.9%
≤90d 77 -14.9% -23.0% 58% 29% -47.6%
all 77 -14.9% -23.0% 58% 29% -47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 29% -47.6%
10% -30.4% 21% -52.6%
15% -37.1% 19% -57.2%
20% -43.3% 13% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$153 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,731
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses45 / 32
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage85d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $72 +$261 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $214 −$112 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $254 −$87 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $270 −$54 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $253 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $107 +$41 +38%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $118 +$72 +60%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $230 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $225 +$7 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $135 +$141 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $56 +$21 +38%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,405 −$1,383 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 29 $196 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 29 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 29 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 29 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $66 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $128 −$51 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 29 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $113 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 29 $106 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 29 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $141 −$45 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 29 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $66 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 29 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 29 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 29 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 29 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 29 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 29 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 29 $30 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $55.65 · 273 history records