Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FD 0xfd9e…3d48 world 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$32 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% −$77
politics 22% −$17
crypto 19% +$95
sports 16% +$4
other 12% +$146
tech 4% −$28
economics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +24.5% +12.7% 31% 31% +22.3%
≤30d 16 +24.5% +12.7% 31% 31% +22.3%
≤90d 16 +24.5% +12.7% 31% 31% +22.3%
all 62 -7.5% -16.4% 35% 29% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 29% -0.1%
10% -24.4% 26% -9.7%
15% -31.7% 21% -18.4%
20% -38.4% 15% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage198d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 41¢ 46¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 48¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$57 +541%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$31 +296%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$113 +532%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -94%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Dec 30 $39 −$2 -4%
US government shutdown Saturday? Dec 30 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Dec 30 $40 −$4 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -98%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 30 $28 −$24 -87%
Dota 2: Kopite vs Ivory (BO3) Dec 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Dec 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Dec 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31? Dec 23 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? Dec 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) Dec 22 $38 +$4 +10%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) Dec 21 $50 +$18 +37%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 20 $42 +$178 +425%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31? Dec 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Dec 19 $47 −$5 -10%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Dec 19 $43 −$21 -50%
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31? Dec 19 $29 +$10 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Dec 15 $42 −$14 -33%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) Dec 14 $25 +$22 +88%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Norway win the 2025 IHF Women’s World Championship? Dec 12 $18 +$9 +52%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Dec 11 $1 $0 -20%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 11 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 11 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Dec 10 $20 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $68 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 59¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $20 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 16h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 8¢ $10 19h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 1¢ $10 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 21h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 69¢ $100 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.94 · official $64.94 (match) · 131 history records