Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd9c…bd26 politics 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$447per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,053now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$12
politics 33% −$7
culture 16% −$3
world 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 33 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 33 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$791) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1,053
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage77d
Avg bet$447
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,022 $1,022 −$1 (-0%)
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $925 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $941 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 16 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,472 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $791 −$7 -1%
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 14 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $164 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in April 2026? Apr 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Apr 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $126 $0 -0%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $984 0m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 11m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,022 18m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 26m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 35m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 43m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $923 49m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 55m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $925 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 15h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,020 15h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 15h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $963 15h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 15h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 16h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $156 16h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 16h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $756 16h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 16h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $250 17h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,008 17h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $940 46h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 46h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $926 46h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 46h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $666 47h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,052.67 · official $1,052.67 (match) · 113 history records