Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd9c…f0c8
weather · 827 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$11,751 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,753 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized+$11,753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses296 / 513
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)809 / 827
History coverage556d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 26 History 809 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$87
14 days+$117
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 66¢ $4 $18 +$14 (+344%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yōko Kamikawa be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on Nove Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on No Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +465%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$10 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 56% +$17,461
other 19% −$2,457
sports 15% −$2,565
world 4% −$466
crypto 3% +$226
weather 1% +$92
tech 1% −$19
culture 1% −$242
economics 0% −$149
finance 0% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +21.4% +9.8% 31% 28% +0.9%
≤30d 390 +11.7% +1.1% 32% 29% +3.0%
≤90d 417 +10.8% +0.2% 32% 29% -4.4%
all 809 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 33% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 33% +4.4%
10% -18.2% 29% -5.6%
15% -26.1% 26% -14.7%
20% -33.3% 21% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.18 · official $44.19 (match) · 2486 history records