Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfd9b…09e8 crypto 1430 markets active 9h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,024 (+9%) realized +$2,024 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%747W / 645L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$181
14 days+$564
30 days+$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,017
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 +11.0% +0.4% 56% 56% -2.3%
≤30d 591 +13.9% +3.1% 59% 59% +1.3%
≤90d 1392 +8.8% -1.6% 54% 54% -5.5%
all 1392 +8.8% -1.6% 54% 54% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 54% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 54% -14.5%
15% -19.6% 53% -22.8%
20% -27.5% 53% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,024
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses747 / 645
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1392 / 1430
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1392 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$18 +240%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$20 +322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$12 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$14 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$21 +386%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$12 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$17 +222%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$14 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$12 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +75%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$11 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$12 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$12 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$12 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $8 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $13 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records