Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd9a…9e7f
crypto · 13 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +156%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 43% −$4
other 35% −$7
sports 23% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.1% +5.0% 80% 80% -13.9%
≤30d 12 +7.8% -2.5% 75% 75% -19.8%
≤90d 12 +7.8% -2.5% 75% 75% -19.8%
all 12 +7.8% -2.5% 75% 75% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 75% -19.8%
10% -11.8% 33% -27.5%
15% -20.3% 25% -34.5%
20% -28.1% 17% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.05 (match) · 27 history records