Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd99…76ef sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,442 (-1%) realized −$1,442 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%76W / 39L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,083per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$476est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,659
7 days−$3,315
14 days−$3,640
30 days−$1,916
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$257
other 4% +$277
weather 1% +$3
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +25.1% +13.2% 75% 45% -16.1%
≤30d 48 +9.3% -1.1% 69% 35% -11.5%
≤90d 115 +5.6% -4.4% 66% 34% -9.5%
all 115 +5.6% -4.4% 66% 34% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 34% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 22% -18.2%
15% -21.9% 13% -26.1%
20% -29.6% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,447) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$217 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$806
Realized−$1,442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses76 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$476
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,083
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Japan 97¢ 97¢ $806 $806 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $7,397 +$595 +8%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $8,977 +$1,012 +11%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,447 +$52 +4%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $6,114 −$6,090 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) Jun 18 $5,129 +$150 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $4,562 +$438 +10%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $155 +$45 +29%
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) Jun 18 $4,814 +$81 +2%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $442 +$58 +13%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 17 $471 −$7 -1%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $175 +$25 +14%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $146 −$20 -14%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $247 +$53 +21%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $79 +$21 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 −$5 -10%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $81 +$19 +23%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 +$163 +442%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,217 +$65 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $9 −$3 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,981 +$114 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $3,689 +$311 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4,419 −$83 -2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $388 −$385 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $688 +$40 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,001 −$102 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $330 −$220 -67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,220 +$372 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $120 +$25 +21%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $624 +$68 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 04 $3,731 +$265 +7%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $1,637 +$63 +4%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $163 +$336 +206%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $1,629 +$369 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $282 −$2 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $895 −$375 -42%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $356 +$44 +12%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 29 $192 +$8 +4%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $3,145 +$119 +4%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $778 +$33 +4%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,790 +$207 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1,452 +$59 +4%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1,120 +$179 +16%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $1,190 −$69 -6%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,305 +$194 +15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $301 −$56 -19%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $3,052 −$56 -2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1,027 +$14 +1%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 20 $1,455 +$43 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $7,992 27m
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $9,990 27m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $1,498 28m
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) SELL Japan 97¢ $174 43m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 97¢ $971 43m
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) SELL Japan 97¢ $1,837 43m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 95¢ $476 45m
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) SELL Japan 97¢ $120 47m
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 95¢ $4,757 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 84¢ $4,220 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 93¢ $1,864 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 92¢ $2,767 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 92¢ $2,767 1h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $329 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 97¢ $2,618 2h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 87¢ $6,114 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) SELL South Africa 100¢ $8 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) SELL South Africa 100¢ $6 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) SELL South Africa 100¢ $1 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) SELL South Africa 100¢ $5,265 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY South Africa 97¢ $2,913 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY South Africa 97¢ $696 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY South Africa 97¢ $1,245 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY South Africa 97¢ $198 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY South Africa 96¢ $78 2d
Spread: Czechia (-3.5) BUY South Africa 96¢ $0 2d
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 91¢ $4,562 3d
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) SELL Panama 100¢ $4,895 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $499 3d
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) BUY Panama 98¢ $4,814 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $805.88 · official $805.88 (match) · 624 history records