Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd97…0ec5
sports · 99 markets active 11h ago
0.0score
+$129,990 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$61,804 · open +$22,694
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$86,749
Realized+$61,804
Unrealized+$22,694
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses68 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$10,832
Open positions10
Markets (closed)89 / 99
History coverage34d
Avg bet$12,408
Trades / day93.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 10 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,159
7 days+$9,404
14 days+$79,320
30 days+$61,768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 51¢ 81¢ $35,852 $57,400 +$21,548 (+60%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $11,403 $15,301 +$3,898 (+34%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8,655 $7,249 −$1,406 (-16%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $4,813 $3,870 −$942 (-20%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 62¢ 80¢ $1,533 $1,978 +$445 (+29%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 45¢ 20¢ $1,368 $611 −$757 (-55%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $247 $260 +$13 (+5%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $148 $36 −$112 (-76%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $18 $24 +$5 (+29%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31,575 +$16,231 +51%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,591 +$409 +16%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 12 $423 −$302 -71%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 12 $5,030 −$3,370 -67%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 12 $15,990 −$1,424 -9%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Jun 12 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 12 $10,636 −$7,631 -72%
World Championships: Switzerland/Norway vs. Canada/Finland Jun 12 $80 +$35 +44%
Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 12 $123 −$37 -30%
NHL Playoffs: Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Total Games O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $18,980 −$2,625 -14%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $14,855 +$6,313 +42%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $6,513 +$1,818 +28%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10,469 +$867 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5,000 +$51 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100,000 +$1,010 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3,657 +$1,045 +29%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3,481 +$87 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $4,911 −$4,654 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $70,000 +$707 +1%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1,466 +$1 +0%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $10,766 +$30 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $110,083 +$748 +1%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $7,331 +$66 +1%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $15,507 +$155 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $18,036 +$249 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $14,088 +$142 +1%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $3,344 +$7 +0%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $21,112 +$32 +0%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $6,761 +$9 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $16,236 −$4,425 -27%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $4,623 +$5 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10,567 +$105 +1%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $7,681 +$136 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $6,253 +$8 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $4,150 −$1,682 -40%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $4,310 +$60 +1%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $3,189 −$198 -6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $12,333 +$4,402 +36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1,232 +$1,596 +130%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $739 +$103 +14%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $368 +$4 +1%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 30 $1,536 +$135 +9%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $2,249 +$643 +29%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $39,405 +$50,476 +128%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $28,184 +$14,301 +51%
NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada? May 30 $100 +$9 +8%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $14,259 −$32 -0%
Will Vegas Golden Knights vs Montreal Canadiens be the 2026 Stanley Cu May 30 $69 +$5 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$95,754
other 21% −$10,694
weather 1% −$562
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $42 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $302 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $52 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $192 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $78 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $137 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $42 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $91 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.7% -17.4% 68% 28% -7.6%
≤30d 88 +26.3% +14.3% 76% 28% -3.5%
≤90d 89 +26.5% +14.4% 76% 29% -3.5%
all 89 +26.5% +14.4% 76% 29% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover93.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.4% 29% -3.5%
10% +3.5% 20% -12.7%
15% ← realistic here -6.5% 16% -21.1%
20% -15.7% 10% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86,748.98 · official $86,749.67 (match) · 3500 history records