Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd94…b271 politics 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$751 (+5%) realized +$774 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%56W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$81
tech 19% −$51
other 16% −$580
economics 13% −$354
crypto 10% +$1,147
world 8% +$485
finance 1% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -43.1% -48.5% 0% 0% -48.5%
≤30d 2 -71.5% -74.3% 0% 0% -73.8%
≤90d 6 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 33% -39.5%
all 108 +4.1% -5.8% 52% 47% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 47% -5.6%
10% -14.8% 37% -14.6%
15% -23.1% 28% -22.9%
20% -30.6% 18% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$81 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$774
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses56 / 52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage518d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 71¢ 63¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 9¢ $25 $6 −$18 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $52 −$22 -43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 20 $102 −$21 -21%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $58 −$14 -24%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? May 06 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? May 06 $18 +$2 +14%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026? Feb 11 $4 $0 -4%
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Feb 06 $50 +$2 +5%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 06 $105 −$26 -25%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Feb 06 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January? Jan 24 $61 +$28 +45%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 19 $55 −$20 -37%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden 7+ times during Pennsylvania events on Dec 21 $75 +$35 +47%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during Pennsylvania events on December 9? Dec 21 $96 +$80 +84%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 16 $578 +$65 +11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026?? Dec 12 $200 +$82 +41%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 12 $380 −$20 -5%
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2025? Dec 12 $60 −$48 -81%
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 12 $200 −$186 -93%
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $200 −$53 -27%
Trump out as President in 2025? Dec 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Dec 11 $350 +$379 +108%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Pennsylvania events on December 9? Dec 09 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025? Dec 05 $150 −$146 -97%
US recession in 2025? Dec 05 $250 −$58 -23%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 02 $509 +$12 +2%
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 28 $100 +$261 +261%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Nov 28 $250 +$148 +59%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 26 $130 +$111 +85%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Aug 31 $180 −$37 -21%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 20 $350 +$66 +19%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 16 $200 +$34 +17%
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? Aug 16 $100 −$54 -54%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Aug 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Au Aug 01 $249 −$249 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? Jul 28 $100 +$267 +266%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Mahmoud Reza Banki be the next CEO of X? Jul 18 $123 −$70 -57%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? Jul 01 $200 −$6 -3%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 11 $87 +$21 +25%
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July? Jun 11 $100 +$24 +24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 11 $200 +$71 +35%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? Jun 02 $100 +$85 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $29 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $22 19d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $22 19d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $13 24d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 29d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 30¢ $52 29d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 47¢ $80 30d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 57¢ $102 32d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $25 32d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $19 42d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $51 42d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $5 127d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $45 127d
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 127d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $52 127d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $53 127d
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 129d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 129d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 129d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 129d
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? SELL No 58¢ $52 132d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $34 132d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 75¢ $68 132d
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $1 138d
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $19 138d
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $6 138d
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $1 138d
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $8 138d
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $1 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.24 · official $37.24 (match) · 400 history records