Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd8f…6f11 world 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45,124 (-15%) realized −$45,244 · open +$120
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate69%93W / 42L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,053per market
Trades / day78.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$29,192
politics 26% +$14,409
other 2% −$138
crypto 0% −$483
tech 0% +$5
culture 0% +$7
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.7% -3.4% 89% 11% -6.1%
≤30d 98 +26.7% +14.6% 66% 26% -15.4%
≤90d 135 +26.8% +14.7% 69% 26% -14.4%
all 135 +26.8% +14.7% 69% 26% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 26% -14.4%
10% +3.7% 13% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -6.3% 11% -30.1%
20% -15.5% 8% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,019) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$554 vs −$1,597 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$5,018
Realized−$45,244
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses93 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)135 / 144
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$2,053
Trades / day78.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,020 $2,030 +$9 (+0%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 84¢ 91¢ $988 $1,074 +$85 (+9%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $738 $746 +$8 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $681 $713 +$32 (+5%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $186 $186 −$0 (-0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $132 $132 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 34¢ 36¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+6%)
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Yes 83¢ 59¢ $63 $45 −$18 (-28%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 27 $1,024 +$5 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $407 +$10 +2%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 27 $444 +$1 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $4,785 +$56 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $215 +$86 +40%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $3,440 +$275 +8%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $1,163 +$67 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $4,267 +$105 +2%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $5,581 +$763 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $6,302 +$1,976 +31%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $2,019 −$224 -11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$85 +567%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 21 $803 +$256 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,037 +$40 +4%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $621 +$114 +18%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $418 +$55 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $32,878 −$24,176 -74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $3,525 −$1,323 -38%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $421 −$16 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 18 $530 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 18 $29 +$25 +87%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $539 +$103 +19%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam Jun 17 $5 +$10 +200%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $942 +$58 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$4 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $8,362 +$317 +4%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,764 −$286 -16%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 15 $45 −$7 -16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $753 +$1,618 +215%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $362 −$166 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $248 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $40 −$16 -40%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $11 −$9 -85%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $149 −$29 -19%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $36 −$32 -89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,062 +$190 +18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $81 +$15 +18%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $246 +$33 +13%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $410 +$5 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $862 +$73 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $7,586 +$28,738 +379%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 10 $530 −$5 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $88 +$4 +5%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 09 $144 −$144 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $682 +$68 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $600 +$46 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $267 8m
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $13 16m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $995 17m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 18m
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $192 23m
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 24m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 26m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $88 26m
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $65 33m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 34m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $88 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $44 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $128 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $129 3h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $93 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $62 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $18 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $9 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $14 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,029 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $8 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $1 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 24h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $54 24h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 24h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $151 25h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,018.07 · official $5,018.07 (match) · 3500 history records