Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd8e…aea4
weather · 449 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$192 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$172 · open +$33
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,020
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses226 / 162
Open positions61
Markets (closed)388 / 449
History coverage7d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day485.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 61 History 388 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$172
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? No 80¢ 92¢ $72 $83 +$11 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? No 81¢ 78¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 81¢ 80¢ $69 $67 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? No 81¢ 95¢ $57 $66 +$10 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 82¢ 72¢ $74 $65 −$9 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? No 81¢ 92¢ $57 $64 +$7 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? No 82¢ 92¢ $57 $64 +$7 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? No 82¢ 90¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? No 82¢ 88¢ $57 $62 +$5 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? No 81¢ 87¢ $57 $61 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 82¢ 84¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? No 82¢ 82¢ $57 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? No 70¢ 80¢ $49 $56 +$7 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 80¢ 80¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? No 82¢ 80¢ $57 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? No 82¢ 78¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 78¢ 76¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? No 82¢ 74¢ $57 $52 −$6 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? No 72¢ 72¢ $51 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? No 82¢ 72¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 82¢ 78¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 82¢ 70¢ $57 $49 −$8 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? No 82¢ 88¢ $43 $47 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 66¢ 78¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? No 82¢ 62¢ $58 $44 −$14 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $74 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $57 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $57 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $27 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $55 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $57 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $74 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $47 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $57 −$23 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $56 −$22 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $57 −$6 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $82 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $56 −$10 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $66 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 −$20 -36%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $74 +$16 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $123 +$27 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 100°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $74 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 13 $72 −$7 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 13 $56 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 13 $45 −$9 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $36 +$7 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 13 $58 −$6 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $46 +$23 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 13 $9 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 13 $66 −$14 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 −$10 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 79¢ $8 11m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 82¢ $8 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 82¢ $8 54m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 86¢ $9 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 83¢ $8 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 83¢ $8 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 83¢ $8 55m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 86¢ $9 56m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 91¢ $4 56m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 91¢ $9 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 84¢ $8 56m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 78¢ $8 56m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 78¢ $8 56m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $6 57m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $6 57m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $12 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 86¢ $9 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 86¢ $9 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 86¢ $9 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 86¢ $9 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 86¢ $9 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 86¢ $9 57m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 66¢ $6 58m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 66¢ $3 58m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 91¢ $9 58m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 91¢ $9 58m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 75¢ $7 58m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 75¢ $7 58m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 75¢ $7 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 +35.8% +22.8% 58% 36% -8.4%
≤30d 388 +35.8% +22.8% 58% 36% -8.4%
≤90d 388 +35.8% +22.8% 58% 36% -8.4%
all 388 +35.8% +22.8% 58% 36% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover485.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.8% 36% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here +11.1% 6% -17.2%
15% +0.3% 4% -25.2%
20% -9.5% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,020.40 · official $2,009.19 (match) · 3500 history records