Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FD 0xfd8d…1d32 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5,618 (+60%) realized +$6,197 · open −$579
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,333per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$3,283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$287
14 days−$287
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$4,470
sports 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -27.6% -34.5% 0% 0% -34.5%
≤30d 1 -27.6% -34.5% 0% 0% -34.5%
≤90d 1 -27.6% -34.5% 0% 0% -34.5%
all 6 +37.3% +24.2% 17% 17% +136.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.2% 17% +136.9%
10% +12.3% 17% +114.2%
15% +1.5% 17% +93.5%
20% -8.5% 17% +74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +162% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5,542 vs −$109 · ×51.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.2 per $1 lost it wins $10.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$3,283
Realized+$6,197
Unrealized−$579
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage178d
Avg bet$1,333
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,863 $3,283 −$579 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,040 −$287 -28%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1,289 +$5,542 +430%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $331 −$89 -27%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $133 −$13 -10%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Feb 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $245 −$103 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $437 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $298 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $224 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2,922 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,040 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6,238 39d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 94¢ $2,399 109d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 94¢ $4,432 109d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 39¢ $577 109d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,283.29 · official $3,283.29 (match) · 92 history records