Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfd8c…daea crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-9%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%32W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$10
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$54
politics 1% −$10
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -22.2% -29.6% 41% 37% -11.0%
≤30d 83 -23.8% -31.0% 39% 35% -13.0%
≤90d 92 -30.3% -36.9% 35% 32% -17.5%
all 92 -30.3% -36.9% 35% 32% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 32% -17.5%
10% -43.0% 23% -25.4%
15% -48.5% 20% -32.6%
20% -53.5% 14% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses32 / 60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage50d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$4 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $69 −$1 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$8 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +154%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +251%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$39 +333%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $33 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $22 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $38 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $7 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $14 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 211 history records