Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FD 0xfd8b…228c crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 50% -6.6%
≤30d 6 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 50% -6.6%
≤90d 6 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 50% -6.6%
all 6 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 50% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 50% -6.6%
10% -15.5% 0% -15.6%
15% -23.6% 0% -23.7%
20% -31.1% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records