Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfd89…34ba other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$7
other 26% −$1
politics 18% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +2.8% -7.0% 71% 14% -7.0%
≤90d 7 +2.8% -7.0% 71% 14% -7.0%
all 28 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -8.8%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.49 per $1 lost it wins $5.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage315d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $24 +$1 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $35 +$5 +13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $36 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 -11%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $51 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $45 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $44 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $44 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $44 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $40 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $40 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 82¢ $9 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 84¢ $35 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.82 · official $42.82 (match) · 84 history records