Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd83…cf16 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$1
crypto 19% −$4
economics 19% −$1
world 18% −$1
other 16% +$4
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×8.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage133d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 21 $29 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $398 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 20 $33 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 9AM ET Feb 20 $14 $0 +0%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 15 $817 +$4 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 15 $939 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 15 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Feb 15 $952 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $972 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $27 27d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $27 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $30 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 37d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 88¢ $56 61d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 88¢ $56 61d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $398 122d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $398 123d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 94¢ $33 128d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 94¢ $33 128d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 132d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $784 132d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $817 132d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $938 132d
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $939 132d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $973 132d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $974 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $951 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $952 133d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $971 133d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $972 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.74 · official $26.74 (match) · 29 history records